Comments and observations on Texas politics

Monday, March 06, 2006

Primaries? Ho hum.

In case you do not keep up with Texas political news, The United States Supreme Court on Wednesday heard oral arguments in the Texas Congressional redistricting case.

This could be considered somewhat quick work for the Supreme Court in that the redistricting plan was not adopted by the Legislature until September 2003.

(And let’s not forget, this was one day after Anna Nicole Smith appeared in the same building. Who says we Texans don’t have style?)

Maybe you have had enough of the Texas Congressional redistricting case and would like to actually think about what will happen in Austin this late spring or early summer regarding school finance and taxes? If so, you might have a problem because the most exciting political news we get may indeed come from the US Supreme Court. There or Sugarland regarding Tom DeLay.

Why, you ask? After all, the Texas Supreme Court has ruled the current school finance system unconstitutional and given the Legislature until June 1 to resolve the issue. Let’s consider it.

Most of the legislative campaign battles take place in primary elections, which will happen tomorrow, Tuesday, March 7th.

Governor Rick Perry has already stated his intention to call a special session on school finance to address the Court’s ruling sometime in April or May after the party primaries and any runoffs.

So unless the legislature comes up with a patchwork, temporary funding plan and/or the Supreme Court extends its deadline, then in November voters will be stuck with voting to keep their incumbent (unless he or she is retiring -- that’s quite a few this year -- and presuming he or she is not beaten in the primaries, which is suspected to be few, if any), switching parties, or staying at home.

If opposing candidates can gain enough traction on issues (in this case, education and taxes), then staying at home will be a rare choice. People vote based on issues, and if some key issues gain traction then they will be forced to pick sides. Right now, it appears those possible issues would favor those not currently in office.

The BIG question becomes: Are there any issues on which opposition candidates (in both the primary and the general election) can gain traction? Regarding the primary elections, there have been efforts to make some of the Republican primaries a battle between the hard-right education reformers and the middle-of-the-road education pragmatists (think policy purists vs. public education managers). This battle is real, but it is not widespread.

At most this is the main issue in 20-30 legislative races – only 20% of the House at best. Is it the stuff that produces big change? No.

Then what’s all the excitement about? Good question.

The answer is mainly the unpredictability of the future. No one knows with certainty what will happen between the primary elections and the general election in November? But we can easily speculate.

* Lt. Governor David Dewhurst and Speaker Tom Craddick meet in the same hemisphere, the legislature agrees to a new school finance plan, and the governor approves it. Case closed -- bringing all smiles on the Republican side. They go home to talk about the taxes they lowered (and not the ones raised or amended) and hope that people will still love them in November. No big issue for the opposition, unless . . . we will get to that later.

* The special sessions crash and burn and any kind of plan that does come out of the legislature is one ugly looking step-child which either makes no one happy or is something of a victory for the Democrats. Here arrives opportunity for an issue.

The key will be whether anyone can use that opportunity.

The Republicans have an advantage here in that the Democrats have no good statewide candidates to promote a cohesive plan and create momentum. However, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn may be able to create enough grassroots support to make the gubernatorial election interesting. Once any issue gains traction there, it will automatically spill over into any contested legislative races.

For this to happen, Mrs. Strayhorn had better hope the media environment for her (and her fellow office-seekers) improves from the past six months. After all, would you like to have faced hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Iraq, US Supreme Court confirmation hearings, the University of Texas football team chasing a national championship, the Winter Olympics, and the mainstream media’s biweekly/monthly nonstop coverage of the latest Bush administration “mistake” all while trying to get the ear of the electorate?

* This next scenario could play out under either situation described above:

If a terrorist attack happens at or near the Mexican border or a terrorist attack in the United States is linked to weak border security with Mexico, then the electorate will react negatively towards the Republican Party mainly because of President Bush’s real or perceived lack of concern for the issue. Governor Perry has been supporting efforts to strengthen border security for the last several months, but voters might hold him responsible since he has been in office since 2001.

It is hard to accurately predict the ramifications of such an event (which could also be increased violence tied to drug smuggling) but there is no doubt that it would have a big influence on Texas politics.

So until a special session on school finance and taxes occurs, most voters will be sitting by and watching and possibly not caring too much. In the meantime here are a few things to look for next Tuesday and Wednesday as primary election results become clear.

If any current House committee chairmen lose, that will be a sign that voter angst is high (at least in certain districts,) and could bubble over in November.

If any incumbents lose, look for any geographic diversity and similarity among the districts. That diversity could give clues about the potential for a bigger change in November, and any similarities could be significant when it comes to certain issues that will be promoted in the November campaigns.

Please send comments to cowboypolitics@yahoo.com

posted by Mark at 2:50 PM

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